Google Flights today is releasing a new feature that will help travelers better determine the right time to book. Rolling out this week, the company is
Google has an advantage, though, because they bought ITA several years ago, which runs the main database that several major carriers use to schedule flights. Their data is not limited to Google searches, they have all the historical pricing in their database for every possible flight.
That does not make any difference. The act of making the information available changes what will happen in the future. The past becomes a very bad guide.
It’s the same sort of thing as with high frequency trading. Quants find a way to profit off particular market movements and in doing so, change the way the market moves. They have to keep updating their models to stay ahead. The difference for Google and flight prices is they don’t get new information every microsecond, they can only update on an annual cycle. I don’t see how they can possibly make a good job of it.
Google has an advantage, though, because they bought ITA several years ago, which runs the main database that several major carriers use to schedule flights. Their data is not limited to Google searches, they have all the historical pricing in their database for every possible flight.
That does not make any difference. The act of making the information available changes what will happen in the future. The past becomes a very bad guide.
It’s the same sort of thing as with high frequency trading. Quants find a way to profit off particular market movements and in doing so, change the way the market moves. They have to keep updating their models to stay ahead. The difference for Google and flight prices is they don’t get new information every microsecond, they can only update on an annual cycle. I don’t see how they can possibly make a good job of it.